The Waynesburg University football program is in a much better state now than it was three years ago.

Head coach Chris Smithley said after the team fell to 0-2 on the season with a 29-12 loss to Westminster that the program was “10 times better” than it was when he took over before last season. Since then, the Yellow Jackets have supported their head coach.

Waynesburg is 4-4 going into Saturday’s matchup at Case Western Reserve, equaling its combined total from 2016 and 2017. The team has progressed, and most of its key players will be back next season.

The team also could easily be 6-2 at this point—it lost by eight points in the season opener to Muskingum and fell to Bethany by nine points in a game where it trailed by just three late in the fourth quarter.

There is reason for optimism.

The biggest red flag, however, is that none of the Jackets’ wins have been convincing. In other words, the team could be 0-8 and at the bottom of the PAC.

All four of Waynesburg’s wins have been by three points or fewer, and required a fortunate bounce or two along the way.

The Yellow Jackets’ first win of the season against Geneva in week four likely wouldn’t have happened if senior linebacker Austin Kline didn’t stop running back Trewon Marshall on fourth-and-goal at the Waynesburg 1-yard line. Geneva was inches away from taking a 14-0 third quarter lead, and the Jackets would have fallen to 0-4 on the season.

Instead, they defeated the Golden Tornadoes, 10-7.

The team won its second straight game the following week at Thiel. Waynesburg trailed the Tomcats 14-3 in the second quarter before taking the lead on a 72-yard touchdown pass from junior quarterback Tyler Perone to junior receiver Nick Moretti before halftime.

Waynesburg ended up winning, 24-21, and without that play, maybe Thiel’s only conference win would be at the expense of the Yellow Jackets.

The team won by the same score the next week against Carnegie Mellon. The result would have been different if not for the defense coming up with two clutch red zone interceptions in the first half.

Waynesburg’s most recent win against a banged-up St. Vincent team told a similar story. Without two kicks of 39 and 40 yards, respectively, by senior Garret Guthrie, the Jackets wouldn’t have moved back to .500.

This Waynesburg team is much better than it was last year and the year before, but to illustrate how unconvincing the Jackets’ wins have been, the team’s combined margin of victory in four wins this season—11 points—is much less than it was last year with two wins at 37 points.

With the last two games coming against Case Western Reserve and Washington & Jefferson, there’s a strong chance that the Yellow Jackets’ have won their last game in 2018. With most of their key performers returning next year, Waynesburg can increase its win total, and this time win games in a more convincing fashion.